I’ll often be watching TV and a tune-in spot comes on advertising an upcoming show or program. Instead of remembering when and where the program will be and then trying to find it in my Comcast DVR’s EPG (not a great experience), I’d like to be able to click a "Remember to Record" button while the ad is playing or within some time lag after it plays and have my DVR put the advertised show on its recording schedule.
The American Idol / Grammys matchup from a couple of weeks ago may go down as a watershed moment in the shift in the balance of power towards the consumer. It turns out that consumers were far more interested in watching their own compete against one another than in watching a pre-packaged, polished telecast with the hottest music stars of the day. American Idol averaged 28.3 million viewers while the Grammys averaged 15 million viewers. Wow. Nearly a 2:1 advantage. The people have voted overwhelmingly with their clickers.
All is not lost, however, for the traditional media companies. Given their existing brand equity and editorial competencies, they could be uniquely positioned IF they can facilitate content creation, conversation and interactions amongst their users but within an appropriately branded, controlled and ‘safe’ environment appealing to advertisers.
Now a prediction: It’s only a matter of time until we have a MySpace award show. Think MTV Viewer’s Choice awards for the 21st century.
We had some friends over this weekend and I was playing some iPod music over the stereo when it made me think: It’s 2006 and yet I’m still struggling to access my music where and when I want to (forget about video).
I have a CD collection that is literally collecting dust on the shelves. Fortunately, I’ve been able to encode most of them into .aac or .mp3 format and have them stored on the hard drive on my Mac. Most of them are also on my iPod, though only a subset of them fit on my wife’s Nano. However, I haven’t yet been able to copy the files on my Mac to my PC so I can listen to my library at work. I’m able to listen to my iPod in my car via the iTrip, but that’s basically a hack. There is little interconnectivity between the PC and DVR/TV/stereo. And the interconnectivity mechanisms vary from Bluetooth to Wifi to good ole RCA cables. I know there are hacks out there, but I’m not willing to go through the hassle. Sonos and Windows Media Center sound like they’d help, but they’re both a bit too expensive. And, from Sean Ryan’s review, it seems that Slingshot is promising but maybe a bit early…so unless you’re an early adopter, we’re very much living in the dis-connected home these days.
When will I be able to seamlessly access my music and other media from my Stereo, PC, TV, Car and mobile device? I’m tempted to say "never" but I’m more optimistic than that. Actually I think it will be when Apple extends their ecosystem because they’ll control the hardware and software but I’m hoping other companies give them a run for their money for competition’s sake.
My friend Tom told me to go see Sigur Ros. They are perhaps Iceland’s 2nd most famous music export after Bjork. I’d best classify their music as a combo of ambient and art rock (think Radiohead). I bought their new record, Takk, and have really been digging it. It takes a few listens and you need to be in the right mood, but they make beautiful music. Their songs have no lyrics per se as they sing in a made up language called "Hopelandic". I was intrigued about how they’d be live.
I was not disappointed. First, the Orpheum was totally sold out. Not an empty seat in the house. I don’t know the song names so won’t go into the set list save that they peformed from both Takk and their prior records, many of which were crowd favorites. It was more like a classical performance than a rock concert. The crowd sat in their seats the whole time, held rapt by the music, and waiting until the end of the song to applaud. Given the absence of understandable lyrics the singer’s voice was just another instrument. As with classical music, it’s a different type of listening. You’re not trying to decipher the lyrics or mentally sing along so much as absorbing the melody. They came out playing behind a translucent screen. The lights in the back projected their shadows onto the screen making them look like larger, otherworldy figures — really cool effect that fit the music.
The experience is hard to describe. All I can say is that I highly recommend seeing them in concert. It won’t be like anything you’ve seen and they make beautiful music.
That was the question debated at this morning’s keynote event at the annual HBS VC/PE Conference. It featured Todd Dagres of Spark Capital advocating the "To VC" position, and Howard Anderson, founder of Battery Ventures and now a prof at MIT Sloan taking the "Not to VC" position. Dan Primack, editor at large of PE Week did a bang-up job as moderator — his questions were sufficiently probing while keeping the mood upbeat. The stage was rich with irony. Todd Dagres used to work at Battery and is crediting with making his partners and LPs over a billion dollars (Akamai, et al). Just as he was raising a new fund focused on early stage companies, his former partner, Howard, was leaving the profession having been convinced that the "rationality" of the market meant little prospect of achieving outsized returns over the next 5 year horizon. The speakers did a great job of speaking their positions while weaving in data and anecdotes about the profession coupled with a nice rapport from the great respect they had for the other. It made for a great kickstart to the rest of the day. Mind you, I had the privilege of helping the VC/PE Club in conceiving and planning this keynote event so I’m completely biased!
Some of the more memorable comments (these are paraphrases, not direct quotes):
Todd:
-VCs are good at lots of things but not market timing. If a space is really hot and you aren’t already in it, you’re too late.
-Early stage VC is a craft, an apprentice business. It takes 5 years to emerge as a VC.
-Most VCs’ first deals fail…better to fail quickly and succeed slowly than the other way around.
-I like bubbles. Bubbles get a bad rap but that’s how you can make money as long as you get in ‘pre-bubble’ and exit in time.
Howard:
-Software companies are valued at 2.5x sales in public markets and 1.5x sales in M&A deals these days. That’s just not enough to be able to make decent returns. Top quartile or decile firms will still make their LPs money.
-Speaking of making big bets, the pharma companies. They bet hundreds of millions of dollars on a single drug — that it will work and win FDA approval (and knowing that the slightest of mistakes will push them back 2 years).
-Being a General Partner at a VC firm, with the hefty salary (as much as $1 M /yr) and carried interest in profits, is like having sex. When the going is good, it’s absolutely incredible. And even when it’s not so good, well it’s not that bad anyway.
Interestingly, both counseled people to not go immediately into VC, especially if they had little operating experience. Todd said they look for people with operating experience who have more credibility with entrepreneurs. Howard told the crowd to start a company rather than go work for an i-bank or VC.
Congrats to the students at the Club for pulling off a memorable event, and thanks to the speakers for indulging us. The moderator asked people to write down the winner on a biz card and submit it, which I didn’t get to do so my verdict is: Todd did a great job in speaking for his cause but, notwithstanding the few non-PC comments from Howard, he gets the nod.
NPR continues to be at the forefront of the podcasting phenomenon (as well they should). They just released a new version of their podcasting directory with a nicer look and many new podcasts. NPR are notably adopting a holistic strategy whereby they aggregate podcasts produced by their Affiliates in their central directory, which also lists content produced by NPR. Great way to thread the needle given the potential channel conflict presented by the internet for broadcasters and affiliates when geographical barriers fall away — something that has recently surfaced in broadcast TV when broadcasters started selling paid downloads. Also, it’s good to see NPR offer more of their best shows such as Wait, Wait, Don’t Tell Me and News Summaries, though Morning Edition and All Things Considered are still absent.
Disclosure: I did some consulting work for NPR last year. I wrote about their 2nd go-round of podcasting here.
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