[This was just published on GigaOm]
I was talking to an executive at a major label the other day. We
were talking about startups and he noted that they either sue these
companies out of business or legitimize them out of business. That is
not far from the truth. How many legitimate, standalone digital
businesses can you name that rely on licenses from the labels for their
primary business and are profitable? Let’s categorize by business model:
E-Commerce/Transaction-based: iTunes immediately
comes to mind. It may be profitable on its own, but we all know that
Apple’s main business is to sell iPods and now iPhones. eMusic is the
other one, and I think it has a real business on its hands — of course
the vast majority of its repertoire is non-major label.
Music Subscriptions: This segment is dominated by
Rhapsody and Napster. Neither is solely a music subscription service,
but that’s what both are best known for. At any rate, neither is
profitable. RealNetworks’ music business lost $1.9 M in the second quarter of this year. Napster? Well its stock chart kinda says it all; it’s currently trading for a little less than the cash it has on its books.
Ad-Supported Music: This includes on-demand audio
and video and also Internet radio. The major players here are the radio
divisions of companies like Yahoo, AOL, CBS (Last.fm and CBS Radio),
MTV, Clear Channel, MySpace, Facebook and then independents like iMeem, Last.fm, Pandora, Live365
(my alma mater) and a number of others. It has been widely reported
that the standard license for on-demand consumption is $0.01 per play,
which amounts to a $10 cost-per-thousand plays, not including other
costs such as publishing, bandwidth/streaming and ad sales and serving
costs.
In short, I think its very hard for any of the ad-supported players
to build a meaningful basis from licensed music. Instead, many of the
larger players will use it as part of a larger strategy to attract
audiences and offer related products that generate higher-margin
revenues. For instance, Clear Channel might have a sponsor for its Stripped
series, which will probably not have the same license cost as a regular
music video. Or MySpace will sell an ad campaign around an event that
it hosts. As for Internet radio, there is a lower royalty rate, but the
CPMs are lower, too. Pandora’s founder was recently quoted as saying
the service may have to throw in the towel if things don’t change with
the fee structure. iMeem has licenses from several labels but it’s been
reported that it gave up a significant piece of the company and agreed
to onerous terms, so, needless to say, it likely isn’t profitable on
its licensed music either.
This is by no means a comprehensive list of business models nor of
the companies within each segment, and there may be companies within
each that are profitable. But that’s beside the point.
The point is that the labels have been lulled into the conviction
that their rates are ‘market’ since some of companies have been willing
to pay such rates to license music as a loss leader. The labels have
been penny-wise and pound-foolish in cutting deals with seemingly
lucrative rates. However, that is not the recipe for a vibrant,
competitive ecosystem of licensees large and small, with no one company
having too much market share — which is exactly what I’d want if I were
in their shoes.
The good news is that I know this has been recognized by people with
the major labels, and they’re experimenting with new licensing schemes.
Hopefully it’s not too late.