A Hard Rain’s A Gonna Fall

I've seen a few blog posts about what the financial crisis means for startups.  Jason Calcanis, most provocatively, calls it the Startup Depression and goes on to give specific things that entrepreneurs can do (scroll to the bottom).  Fred Wilson offers up his thoughts as well including the fact that venture-backed companies are in better shape than angel-funded ones (read with slight grain of salt since it would serve Fred to make that point!).  I've talked to several people in the startup and ad-funded world.  There is some optimism that advertising will hasten from offline to more-accountable online mediums.  That may be somewhat of a mitigating factor, but I'm skeptical.  My advice and thoughts are:

  • Advertising will decline.  Plan on it so that you're pleasantly surprised if it doesn't happen.  There will also be a 'flight to quality' even in digital, where money is spent on 'tried and true' sites vs. less-established ones.
  • Take a hard look at your costs and cashflow.  As Jason counsels, look to renegotiate contracts where you can.  You can save good money this way.  If you can even adjust payment terms from net 30 to net 60 or even net 90, it's better than nothing and you deserve a pat on the back.
  • We will see more and more startups go under as their funding dries up if they can't show any significant traction.  My sense is that they'll be in crowded segments like video sharing or social networking where there are large incumbents.  And a lot of them won't be missed…I mean does the world really need another music recommendation/video sharing/social bookmarking service?
  • Focus.  Focus on the product and the features that will be needle-moving for your business.  They could be 'boring' things like scalability and 'fit and finish' of what's there now and tweaking the UE to get better conversions.  
  • If you're thinking of starting a company, it will no doubt be harder to raise money.  BUT, it will be easier to hire good people and you'll get more breathing room.  Some of the best startups were born during down cycles.

Anecdotes On The Financial Crisis

It is common to run into people in the finance and investing industries in London and there's no shortage of stories on the changes and implications of the financial crisis.  Here's what I've heard:

  • Morgan Stanley has lost a large chunk of their prime brokerage business 
  • Who's winning?  It's all about sentiment and confidence, and so there's a flight to quality to the large, integrated banks like Deutsche Bank, which are perceived as safe
  • A major institution has already started cost cutting measures such as reverting to black & white printing as a default option for its employees and changing the threshold time after which the Company will pay for a taxi to take the employee home from 9 pm to 10 pm 
  • Credit and liquidity have dried up, which means not much activity or deal flow.  One hedge fund guy said he'd worked about 2 hours in an 8 hour day 
  • One friend at a private equity group said things are very busy because they deal in distressed assets and so they're expecting lots of deal flow in the next couple of years 
  • And, of course, everyone expects bonuses to be very low this season 

Muxtape: The Trials & Tribulations

Justin, the founder of Muxtape, has a heartfelt and interesting story about its founding and the trials and tribulations he's faced over the past few months as well as the new direction he's taking.  It's riveting. One of the more colorful passages:

In May I had my first meeting with a major label, Universal Music
Group. I went alone and prepared myself for the worst, having spent the
last decade toeing the indie party line that the big labels were
hopelessly obstinate luddites with no idea what was good for them. I’m
here to tell you now that the labels understand their business a lot
better than most people suspect, although they each have their own
surprisingly distinct personality when it comes to how they approach
the future. The gentlemen I met at Universal were incredibly receptive
and tactful; I didn’t have to sell them on why Muxtape was good for
them, they knew it was cool and just wanted to get paid. I sympathized
with that. I told them I needed some time to get a proposal together
and we left things in limbo.

A few weeks later I had a
meeting with EMI, the character of which was much different. I walked
into a conference room and shook eight or nine hands, sitting down at a
conference table with a phonebook-thick file labeled “Muxtape” laying
on it. The people I met formed a semi-circle around me like a split
brain, legal on one side and business development on the other. The
meeting alternated between an intense grilling from the legal side
(“you are a willful infringer and we are mere hours from shutting you
down”) and an awkward discussion with the business side (“assuming we
don’t shut you down, how do you see us working together?”). I asked for
two weeks to make a proposal, they gave me two days.

Innovation In the Music Industry

I know a couple of people looking to potentially get into the music industry and to join a major label.  Yes, I asked them the same thing going through many of your heads: "Why??"  Actually, the labels are doing some interesting things but, even when they innovate, it's often an uphill battle as they have to deal with a complex web of relationships and history between artists, managers, publishers and other stakeholders.  Most of the innovation is coming from start-ups.  From innovations in business model, like Sellaband (crowd-sourced funding for music), to the development of music platforms like iMeem, iLike and MySpace Music, to new forms of finding and sharing music such as playlist.com and 8tracks*, to online karaoke services like kSolo and Talentrun.  Larger companies are also innovating such as Live Nation with their 360-degree deals.  On the A&R side, I think we'll see some hybrid companies emerge that act as marketers, brand managers and agents for the artists that they find and sign.  But this is by no means comprehensive…so what have I missed?  What other companies are innovating in music?

*I am an advisor to 8tracks

Sidetaker: Weigh In On Other People’s Relationship Problems

AdAge's Mat Zucker (via Jason Hirschorn's Media ReDEFined feed) posted about Sidetaker  It's a site that lets the crowd opine on the relationship problems posted by its contributors.  For instance, this one was posted by a boyfriend who thinks his girlfriend has been gaining too much weight, with her (funny) rebuttal posted next to it.  I took her side as did 62% of the responses.  I liked the part about his snaggle tooth.

It would be interesting to know the demographics of the respondents for any particular side.  Anyway, Sidetaker isn't exactly a forum for mediation or resolving deeply personal issues.  But it's kind of addictive to not only read both sides of an issue but also see whether the side you take aligns with the rest of the community.  

London, One Year In

Today marks the one-year anniversary of my moving to London.  What a year it has been.  I've been able to see some amazing places, in and out of the UK.  Most importantly, I've met some wonderful people, many of whom I now consider close friends.  Yes, I am a very lucky person.

I wrote some tips for ex-pats at the 6-month mark, to which I'll add some more:

-There's no sugar-coating it: the weather is atrocious.  So buy yourself some 'brollies', resign yourself to getting wet on occasion, and make the most of the nice days – go to the park, get out of the city, or find a pub with a nice garden.

-Know that there will be an adjustment period.  Most ex-pats I talk to said it took them from 6 months to a year before they really felt like they'd settled in, after which they started loving it.    

-Go to gigs. The city has a wealth of cultural goings-on.  Take advantage.  


-Walk.  London is one of the best walking cities.  There are organized walking tours, which I have yet to do.  But it's also a great place to just walk around, take in the sights and the atmosphere.

-If you get the chance, go on a boat ride down the Thames (either via water taxi or boat cruise).  It's a great way of seeing the city from a different point of view.

All in all, I've greatly enjoyed my first year here and am looking forward to year two.


[Off Topic] BirdSmack – Middle Finger Solutions

Some people I know just launched BirdSmack.  From their site:

How did BirdSmack.com start?

Not too long ago, JonSmack was helping a friend respond to an incredibly irritating email concerning mustaches and intellectual property. In a sudden burst of insight, he realized the perfect response was a picture of his middle finger in a mustache disguise. Realizing there might be others with an unmet need for middle finger solutions, JonSmack and PierreSmack soon began amassing a vast arsenal of middle finger solutions. And just like that, BirdSmack.com was born.

What can BirdSmack.com do for me?

A picture is worth a thousand words, but a picture of a middle finger is worthtwo thousand words. Email someone a BirdSmack when words just aren’t enough, and only a finger will do. Send them to your friends. Send them to your enemies. On occasion, send them to people you hardly know. And if someone BirdSmacks you, remember that an appropriate response is only a couple clicks away.

Some funny ones on the site and it's good for a little time wasting so check it out.  

Asia Trip – Vietnam

We headed to Vietnam after Cambodia.  We didn't have nearly enough time to really do the country so we stuck to the main cities of Ho Chi Minh (aka Saigon) and Hanoi.  HCMC was mostly a couple of days of rest for me with a proper drenching from a summer downpour.  Bryan took a day trip to the Cu Chi tunnels, which were interesting; and we had an amazing bowl of pho at Pho 2000, same place that Bill Clinton visited.  HCMC is a big, bustling city.  There aren't many sights for tourists so it's usually recommended to spend a day max and then continue on.  The highlight was meeting up with James and Pho (friends of friends) who took us to some of the local spots where we were the only non-Vietnamese there despite the bar bands belting out covers of the Eagles and U2 in English — HCMC certainly has great nightlife.  James and Pho are venture capitalists in Vietnam.  Because of the War and demographics, a large percentage of the country is under 35.  In recent years, the country has opened up to investment and growth.  And yet there is a lack of experienced managers.  They are investing in a lot of businesses, both tech and non-tech, but finding talent to run them is their biggest problem.  

We headed to Hanoi after HCMC.  Hanoi is a throwback and oozes the charm of post-French colonial Vietnam.  You can see this in the tree-lined boulevards and the old French-colonial buildings.  The Old Quarter is a great place to walk around and take it all in.  What's nice about it is that, while there are lots of places catering to tourists, it is bustling with people going about their daily lives.  We had a great meal at Vine, a high-end restaurant serving Vietnamese and western food owned by my friend Henry.  Another memorable meal was at Quan An Ngon – it's a sit-down restaurant but with stalls offering various types of street food.  
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And then, on our last night, I went for some real street food — snails sauteed in chilli and vegetables — it was delicious!
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The highlight of our trip was our cruise on Ha Long Bay.  According to Wikipedia, Ha Long Bay is a Unesco World Heritage site with thousands of limestone karsts and islands in it.  It is one of the most beautiful places I've visited.  The best way to see it is via overnight cruise.  We chose the Ha Long Jasmine boat though I-Escape and, once again, the site came through.  Everything about the experience was first-class: the boat and its cabins were spacious and well-appointed, the staff knew English well and were friendly, and the food was some of the best we had in Vietnam.  They also organized mini-excursions like exploring caves, swimming, kayaking and hiking up a hill to get a great view of the Bay.

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Because we had so much ground to cover, we didn't venture to other parts of the country like Hue, Hoi An or Na Trang.  But I'm glad we had Vietnam on the itinerary. 

Asia Trip – Siem Reap

[As many of you know, my good friend Bryan & I recently got back from a holiday in the Far East.  We went to Siem Reap in Cambodia, Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, took in the Olympics in Beijing and ended the trip in Shanghai.]

Siem Reap is where the world-famous temples of Angkor are located.  The best known is Angkor Wat but there are hundreds of temples in the area.  I won't reiterate what can be learned from the guide books but I will go over the highlights and other learnings:

  • I didn't realize the extent of the Khmer empire.  In its heyday, it ruled over modern-day Laos, Thailand and Vietnam from its based in Cambodia.  Khmer concepts have been co-opted by others.  For instance, the Khmer invented kick boxing eventually became Thai kickboxing aka Muay Thai.
  • We stayed at the FCC, which we booked through I-Escape.  The rooms are nicely appointed and the service was great.  The other recommended place would be Hotel De La Paix.  It is in the middle of town but has a french vibe quite different than the FCC.
  • We were very lucky to be introduced to some ex-pats living in Siem Reap.  We got to do and see things that normal tourists wouldn't be able to do such as horseback riding through the Cambodian countryside via the Happy Ranch.  The Happy Ranch is highly recommended.  It's a good respite from temple excursions and you get to see a part of Cambodia that you wouldn't otherwise see. Here's a picture with Lucy, our guide: IMG_1110
  • We saw 4 main temples: Angkor Wat, Ta Prohm, Preah Kahn and Bayon / Angkor Tom.  They were each amazing in their own way.  We were lucky in that we avoided the crowds in each visit.  Our guide was key to this – we found "John Teng" on Trip Advisor and ended up hiring his brother, whom we were very happy with, and who was able to take us to the temples at the right times to avoid the crowds.  Highly recommended.  The highlight was probably visiting Ta Prohm, the temple where they filmed Tomb Raider and Indiana Jones.  We were one of the only people there and it was a mystical experience to explore the temple by ourselves. 
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  • Siem Reap has been growing exponentially as Western tourists discover its charms.  The city itself has seen an explosion in population and property values.  And yet the Cambodian people remain earnest and charming – they are geniunely appreciative of your custom and it shows.  I just hope they can retain this as they attract more tourism and investment.
  • We also got to see a piglet race.  It was held at a bar serving ex-pats and each piglet was sponsored by a NGO that benefited from the proceeds.  One of the more unusual sights I've seen in a bar!IMG_1100

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