Bubble, Bubble, Toil & Trouble

Every tech blogger’s favorite parlor game of the moment seems to be weighing in on the ‘is it or isn’t it a bubble?’ question.  I may as well join in with a qualified “meh”:

  • There seems to be too much funding chasing too few early stage deals leading to the so-called frothy valuations. 
  • These are also heady days on the recruiting front.  This story in the NYT reminded me of those halcyon days of 1999.
  • However, clearly it’s a much different game this time around in terms of the secular trends around broadband penetration, user adoption, technology costs and so on.  What’s more, I don’t hear locker room attendants talking about stocks or angel investments they’ve made.  Yes, there are many more angel investors (including yours truly, slightly), but that is far from a bubble.
  • There has been a dearth of tech growth stories on public markets leading to pent-up demand for secondary shares of private companies such as Facebook and Zynga, and appetite for those that do go IPO.

So, in short, there are unrealistic expectations within a pocket of the overall market.  People will lose out and get hurt.  But, on balance, it won’t be nearly as painful as it was ‘back then’.  Meh.

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